STRATEGIC BARRIERS TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECONOMIES, FIRMS AND PROJECTS (EFP) IN CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS THREAT

Автор(ы): Доктор экономических наук, профессор Санкт-Петербургского государственного университета Маленков Ю.А.

Опубликовано: "Euro-Mediterranean Economic and Finance Review. The Review of Remereg", 2010, Vol.5, N2.
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Future global barriers (FGB)

Many of future barriers are realized only partially or not realized at all today. Among them priority should be given to the next:

FBBarrier - a threat of new, more powerful waves of global economic crisis.

Today there are no reliable forecast of the world economy development, but analysis of the various strategic scenarios and already existing tendencies leads to the incontestable logical conclusion: in a short-term interval the second wave of world financial and economic crisis is rather possible, in an intermediate term interval it is highly probable, and in a long-term interval it is inevitable.

It is clear that an overall continuous enormous pumping up the national economies, already overloaded by public debts and budget deficits, with additional money (the strategy of raising liquidity) leads in the final count to financial collapse, if only governments could not bridle financial instability and currencies devaluation in time.

One of the main problems is: what becomes of the new money injected in the national economies? Do they fulfill their part or not? Due to globalization, this money has a very unpleasant new trait – they are able to run around the globe, thus increasing thirst for new injections and so on. And only off - shores, like casinos, win. To fight the last crisis more then 20% of world GDP was spent. There is no answer to the question of what will the second wave of crisis be like, but one can be sure that at such a rate of spending, just two more waves will suffice, like the last one, and the whole world economy building will topple down.

Possibilities and means of overcoming strategic barriers to EFP sustainable development

Principal ways of overcoming the intricate set of strategic barriers to sustainable development EFP should be along:

1. Building healthy and stable external economical and social environments.
2. Motivate and stimulate EFP organizations and systems to continuously develop their viability as the principal criteria of resistance to crises.
3. Develop unified international standards and rules excluding spreading of local crises to global level.

To build healthy and stable external economical and social environments a set of new strategic measures should be worked out and applied.

Among them are needed:

1. Internationally coordinated actions of the Governments on strengthening financial institutes.
2. To set strict government control on global financial transactions influencing financial markets and currencies rates.
3. Sharply restricting activities of global financial speculations and hoaxes.
4. In order to prevent social disturbances leading to social chaos to open international public dialogues and discussions on the ways, means and actions of solving global crisis problem.
5. Pacts with all political parties and forces demanding from them to combine social protests, which they support, with the concrete economically proved propositions and long - range programs.

To motivate and stimulate all EFP organizations and systems to continuously develop their viability it is necessary to change EMF approaches to solving problems of crisis. EFP management should be aware that the growth or fall of economical indicators does not prove worsening or bettering; EMF could demonstrate growth in the short period and sharply falls after it. The key question is what happens with EFP viability - does it grow or lessens?

We see very abnormal and often strong reactions of highly volatile financial markets on weak, sometimes false signals of would - be negative market changes, while in reality nothing has been changed. Then in several days or weeks everything calms down. It is often wrongly considered that EFP are growing weak while their viabilities have not been changed. It would be most useful publicly to declare that international and government financial support should be given in major part to the most viable EFP organizations, and not to the most Big ones, as it was frequently done in many countries during the last crisis.

It would be also useful to remember the fruitful experience of the successful managers Lee Iacocca, J. Welch and others, who started their astonishingly efficient programs first by radically replacing management cadres and restructuring their organizations. So far very little, if nothing at all, in this respect was done with big financial institutions who provoked and initiated the global financial chain reaction.

After the first wave of the crisis in many countries nothing has been changed in EFP management. It seems as if nobody believes in the new wave of crisis, which most certainly will be much more devastating and destructive.

Unified international standards and rules excluding spreading of local crises to global level should have been worked out at the dawn of globalization. But today the old principle "What is good for one country is bad for another one" is still at work. Without these unified international standards and rules vulnerability of the world economy will rapidly rise, and like a holes in a dam, holes in international financial system and law will destroy global world finance system, with all its overheated markets. Still there is little time left to work out a doctrine of financial and economical sustainability on global level with internationally unified conditions, requirements and standards of financial institutions which provide for the stability of economical and social environments.

Understanding strategic barriers to EFP sustainable development and working out strategies strategy eliminating them or reducing their influence makes their overcoming possible, however difficult it is, and greatly lessens danger of new waves of economical and social catastrophes.

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