PROBLEMS OF THE GLOBAL CRISES PREVENTION: NEW STRATEGY AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCING

Автор(ы): Доктор экономических наук, профессор Санкт-Петербургского государственного университета Маленков Ю.А.

Опубликовано: Euro-Mediterranean economics and finance review. Special Issue for IFC 6. Vol. 6, N°1, 2011 (pp.47- 74)
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Introduction

Global crises are the main threat to the world community existence. They have various characters - climate changes, natural and technogenic catastrophes, financial and economic crises and others. They are all system interconnected. For example, global financial crisis can become the reason of global social, technogenic and ecological catastrophes, owing to financial chaos and disorganization of the industry caused by its power and transport failures. In its turn natural and technogenic catastrophes can paralyze financial and economic system. The Interrelations between global crises and threats today are studied insufficiently.

Despite their distinctions, all kinds of global crises are equal in theirs enormous destructive consequences, scales of the damages inflicted to national economies, the population and ecology. The history shows, that civilizations were victims of crises and disappeared because their heads were not able in time to distinguish the global threats and their consequences, to estimate risks, to develop necessary strategies. If earlier crises acted basically on the separate nations or regions global crises in the modern world have an effect upon the whole world. Consequences of financial shocks in the USA are felt by the inhabitants of the other hemisphere, earthquakes in Japan lead to crashes of banks in the West. The world became interdependent and vulnerability of the world community has grown as never before.

Global crises do not happen suddenly. They are a consequence of the global threats which are possible to prevent or to weaken substantially. For this purpose preliminary working out and application of effective strategies is necessary.

The main means of the global threats opposition is the science. Only scientifically-proved decisions can prevent or, at least, like breakwaters essentially lower blows of global crises. And even insignificant errors in strategies can lead to catastrophes.

The science is the tool of understanding the world in which people live. It serves as means of revealing laws of its development, searches ways of improvement of the mankind environment. The mission of a science is to make better life of the world community and each person in it. Among a set of directions of development of a modern science the special priority should belong to researches on prevention of the global crises prevention menacing to mankind.

The world community has entered the 21th century with a cargo of unresolved problems. The main among them are high risks of global crises and catastrophes and their discrepancy to protective actions. The mankind never was in such a dangerous zone of high risks. The world community is threatened with the global financial and economic crises quickly developing changes of a climate, dangerous space objects, geophysical catastrophes (volcanoes, changes of a climate, etc.), biological, technogenic catastrophes and many other threats.

The global threats possess qualities of the negative synergy. Each of them can cause the whole chain of the most various catastrophes if not the active protection actions are taken. Probabilities of the global threats of a various kind quickly grow and scales of catastrophes caused by them also grow.

Today the global threats are studied as isolated. The whole system model of the global threats to the world community and the uniform strategy of counteraction is absent. For the last decades numerous attempts to prevent global crises have been undertaken but almost all of them failed except for the prevention of the Third World War. In the sphere of protection of the world community from the global threats practically there is no progress. Actions of the international community on the development of coordinated strategic decisions in the most important directions of the world crises prevention (ecology, economy, social sphere and others) cannot become successful. The countries cannot agree on any key problems on which survival of mankind depends.

Today all standard methods of global crises prevention are exhausted. The last events confirm it. Even on such an obvious problem as United Nations Meeting on biological diversity (Japan, Nagoya, October 2010) countries did not come to an agreement. What can one say about others even more grave challenges and threats?

The modern science has accumulated the powerful potential of protection from the most dangerous threats and is capable to resist them. But, unfortunately, the strategic decisions in global crises prevention are accepted not by the scientists but by the politicians and the government officials of the different countries. And they are already in a captivity of the out-of-date sample approaches for decades, cannot find common language and develop strategy of the coordinated actions, despite efforts of the various international organizations.

The point is that within the limits of existing standard approaches it is impossible to solve the extremely complex and inconsistent problems of the global threats counteraction. To prevent global crises and catastrophes of the future or, at least, to weaken them essentially and make them noncritical for the world community development is possible only on the basis of the new non-standard approach.

Only new strategy of protection against the global threats can prevent catastrophes and crises on the scales unknown which are inevitable already in the near future.