PROBLEMS OF THE GLOBAL CRISES PREVENTION: NEW STRATEGY AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCING

Автор(ы): Доктор экономических наук, профессор Санкт-Петербургского государственного университета Маленков Ю.А.

Опубликовано: Euro-Mediterranean economics and finance review. Special Issue for IFC 6. Vol. 6, N°1, 2011 (pp.47- 74)
http://yu800.110mb.com/

Global geophysical threats (volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, warming or a cold snap of climate, droughts, etc.)

Perhaps the Global geophysical threat is better taken care of because it is not in the space but here on the Earth? Unfortunately it is not so. Global geophysical threats on a scale, possible consequences and complexity of its prevention are ranked among the most probable and dangerous threats to life existence on the earth. These threats are various, but the greatest danger represent volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, climate change, droughts, pure water shortage. In the history of mankind a number of civilizations became a victim of these accidents, having totally disappeared from the Earth. "Giant tsunamis, super volcanoes and earthquakes could pose a greater threat than terrorism, scientists claim". "Large volcanic blasts can have a dramatic effect on the environment, pumping huge quantities of gas into the atmosphere that block solar radiation and lead to significant cooling at the Earth's surface."

Development of the powerful systems of dangerous geophysical processes monitoring and expansion of scientific researches are insufficiently financed today. The current condition in this sphere is pitiable: "Of the 3,000 or so active and potentially active volcanoes, for example, we are monitoring just a few hundred".

Until now there is no answer to a question of the comparative contribution of human activity and volcanoes to the climate change and the biochemical processes at the bottom of the World Ocean. Still these three processes are considered as principal causes of the current climate change.

Researches of dangerous geophysical processes and scenarios of possible protective actions are scarce. There is a wrong point of view, that if control of these processes is impossible, why should the money be wasted? But scientists say that, on the contrary, the human activity changes environment and leads to the geophysical catastrophes.

Of volcanoes, which are typically considered as natural hazards, the latest researches confirm: "Can changes in the environment trigger volcanic eruptions? Research published this month in the Journal of Geophysical Research is the latest to suggest this can and does happen. Ben Mason, David Pyle and colleagues at Cambridge University examined the timings of more than 3,000 eruptions that occurred across the globe between 1700 and 1999. Their surprising findings reveal that the timing of volcanic activity is not random... changes in the environment, such as weather, climate and sea level, exert at least as great an influence on volcanoes as volcanoes do on the environment".

Specialists say: "Global Geophysical Events, or "Gee Gees", as they are nick-named, are not being taken seriously enough … The global community needs to monitor these risks, and develop strategies to cope in the face of a catastrophe".

Reliable systems of geophysical monitoring can forecast and even prevent catastrophes and save millions of lives.

Global geophysical threats are linked with almost all other threats (Figure 1). They start a chain reaction of other crises - financial, social et al. And here again bureaucracy, national and individual egoism interferes with necessary projects and actions.

Biological threats (pandemics, genetic mutations, degeneration of a human being, flora and fauna)

Global biological threats today are dealt with better than others. In many countries monitoring systems and protection are created against this threat. But reliability of these systems is rather problematic: "Compared with nuclear and chemical threats, the strategic and analytic framework for addressing biological threats and the depth of expertise are much less developed. The response to the biological threat — with its close links to naturally occurring infectious disease — requires a new thinking".

The losses inflicted by this threat can be enormous. The 1918-1919 worldwide epidemic of the Spanish Flu had a catastrophic toll: "...is estimated to have infected 500 million people resulting in nearly 40 million deaths".

Not only viruses are dangerous. The proceeding degeneration of a human as a result of negative influence of various poisonous substances of the industry, power, transport grows constantly in the world and is not less dangerous. In many countries programs on the decrease of negative influence of poisonous substances on the population are being developed but the problem is that a human body cannot adapt to new negative biological influences which extend worldwide. Today the majority of people drink polluted, to tell more correctly, poisoned water, eats poisoned food, breathes poisoned air, uses devices with harmful electromagnetic radiations.

For a long time already the massive display of degenerate changes in organisms of many people is being remarked, beginning from adiposity to the sharp growth of death rate from various illnesses. There is also a genetic mutation, imperceptibly and inevitably worsening viability of the world community and its chances of a survival in the future.

Today many countries create their own systems of the biological weapons spending a lot of finance on it: "All told, it's suspected that more than a dozen sovereign nations possess some form offensive bioweapons program, assuming one includes some republics of the former Soviet Union. How can this proliferation be controlled?"

As a result instead of the international programs of protection against dangerous biological threats there arise new risks of leakage of viruses from laboratories and financial resources are wasted away.

Biological threats strengthen negative action of other threats. So after the earthquake in Haiti (2010) cholera epidemic flashed. In the mass media the problem of inefficient expenditure of the finance directed on humanitarian aid, bureaucracy and corruption constantly rises. Thus, the global threats show the synergy.

Scientists speak about the absence of strategy in this very important area: "Threats can emerge from many sources and involve human, plant and animal diseases. It is essential to develop strategies for action that do not imperil the advances in bioscience that we depend upon for progress in improving the health of the human condition."

Social threats (wars, international terrorism, poverty, genocide, hunger, social confrontations)

Global social threats endanger the development the world community development. Though the majority of them takes place as local military and conflicts, outbursts of terrorism, a pandemic of hunger, social revolts, they can cause a series of other global accidents or quickly extend worldwide: "The threats of terrorism and the threats from weapons of mass destruction are not separate, but inter-related and reinforcing, and the world's security now depends in great part on who is faster and smarter — those trying to get weapons, materials, and know-how, or those trying to secure them. Consider these facts: Terrorism: Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden said that acquiring nuclear weapons is "a religious duty."

Both the World Wars began with seemingly small incidents and ended with tens millions of victims and destruction of economies of the whole countries.

Special danger is represented today by the distribution of the nuclear weapon. Nuclear war cannot be local. It will inevitably cause the whole series of geophysical, technogenic and biological accidents all over the world. Distribution and growth of the nuclear weapons sharply raise risks of global accident and expands in the world: "New nuclear states: In 1998, India and Pakistan, two countries that have fought three recent wars, exploded nuclear tests within days of each other. Both nations now have nuclear weapons; neither has advanced warning or safety systems, and there is a continuing conflict over Kashmir... More states are actively developing nuclear weapons. Iran's civilian nuclear power program has prompted much concern regarding its intention to develop nuclear weapons".14 As shows the systems analysis the nuclear conflict only between two countries, India and Pakistan, in the first week will lead to death more than 900 million persons and will cause destruction of the world biosphere, causing a chain geophysical, biological and social disasters.

Today the world community tries to constrain terrorism development. But also in this area there is no general strategy which considers the necessity of eliminating all the conditions of its occurrence and changing thinking of people involved in this destructive process. According to the opinion of experts scientific researches in this area are necessary: "The terrorist threat is very real, and it's about to get worse. Scientists should concern themselves before it's too late."

There is a strong synergy in the social threat and other global threats interaction. A.G. Frank and M. Fuentes wrote: "Then when the economic downturn most detrimentally affects people's livelihood and identity, the social movements become more offensive".17 Especially strong social confrontations occur owing to financial and economic crises when standards of living fall below the accustomed levels existing for a long time.

Today there is no strategy solving the poverty problem which grows in the world. After the last financial crisis the number of poor in the world increased by 55 million people, and life standards fell for hundreds millions people. Poverty is one of the main sources and the reasons of terrorism spreading, hunger, epidemics and wars. The population increases in the world annually for 130 million. The bigger part of it is in the poor countries with high fertility rate that increases poverty in the world even more. New strategy of poverty counteraction is necessary.

The last world financial and economic crisis has shown the extreme instability of the world finance and economy, the weakness of financial tools, the absence of clear prospects of prevention of a new wave of crises and the danger of transition of it to the Great Depression or, moreover, to financial and economic chaos.

To cope with the last world crisis the governments spent a total sum exceeding 20 % of the world GNP. But in comparison with the expenses, very modest results were achieved - insufficient stabilization of financial sphere and the very modest revival of some sectors of the market were reached. But the inner negative drivers of the crisis were practically not touched. Billions of dollars and Euros, different state bonds unsecured with real wealth were thrown in the world economy. It all put an additional heavy burden on the national economies already overloaded with state debts.

Today it is obvious, that the financial sphere is developing practically irrespective of the real economy. Huge capitals accumulate in oil securities and various derivatives but they do not submit to any to any economic laws and follow the whims of big financial players. Financial markets become especially risky, even false panic today about possible changes in the states financial regulation can give way to the new financial crisis.

Experts assume, that the world economy will enter the next fifth long cycle of development in which the drivers of the economic growth are information technologies, biotechnologies, nanotechnologies and others. But is that so? The new Internet technologies turned very quickly into speculative bubbles in which the pursuit of fictitious super profits became the main mission to the detriment of common sense. The financial regulation of the Internet market, as well as in a case with the mortgage crisis in the USA, was practically absent. Financial pyramids spread in the market of the Internet technologies and bursted, and together with them bursted a hope that new InfoTech will be a basis of stability and prosperity of the world economy in 21th century.

Are the nanotechnologies and biotechnologies next ones? It depends mainly on the actions of financial players. Not on science. But today any sector of the financial market is not secured from repetition of the destiny of the Internet market failures.

Super high incomes of operations in the financial markets are torn absolutely off from a reality, having made a real sector of economy unattractive for investments, having created in a society a false leading light of fast success - quick and easy financial speculation instead of hard labor of innovation creation as it was in the end of the 19th- the beginning of the 20th centuries when the economy of many countries developed dynamically.

Many experts connect the prevention of financial and economic crisis with its regulation by the governments. But possibilities and financial tools of governments are very limited. The main thing is that they can do, but still have accepted the uniform system of the rules for all the financial markets of the world, which are connected like communicating vessels, preventing occurrence of financial swindles, limiting the degree of influence of separate big players on the markets, lowering the taxation in innovative spheres of economy.

Counteraction to economic crisis threat should be rendered in various ways. Today the easiest way is chosen providing the population with an easy access to cheap credits and raising liquidity of economy. However it brings a variety of negative results - inflation growth, growth of public debts and others. As a result the problem of the world crisis is not solved but only moved onto the future periods.

The other way is more complex: it is directed on the revival of the world demand by means of the development and manufacture of innovative goods and services of new generation with new consumer properties.

For lowering risks of world economy development it is important to have an objective model of the of GNP (Gross National Product) dynamics. Today GNP growth of the countries is considered as one of the main indicators of the world crisis ending. But the quality of its growth is more important. GNP growth contains the growth of faulty securities, derivatives and transformed state debts which are shifted to the future and other components which hide the real deterioration of national economies. It is difficult but necessary to asses the true health and dynamics of the GNP and quality of economic growth as a whole.

New methodology of GNP evaluation is urgently needed. Clearing GNP of ballast (false «additions") will allow receiving authentic outlook of the economy development and its state. The quality of GNP is very important and if it increases the danger of this global threat lowers.

←	3	→
1 2		4 5 6 7