PROBLEMS OF THE GLOBAL CRISES PREVENTION: NEW STRATEGY AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCING

Автор(ы): Доктор экономических наук, профессор Санкт-Петербургского государственного университета Маленков Ю.А.

Опубликовано: Euro-Mediterranean economics and finance review. Special Issue for IFC 6. Vol. 6, N°1, 2011 (pp.47- 74)
http://yu800.110mb.com/

The creation of over national system capable of global crises prevention management is based on authority and unique possibilities of the Nobel committee whose decisions cannot be challenged because the Nobel committee:

• is non-political;
• has not social biases;
• its decisions are accepted all around the world;
• takes into account opinions of the whole world scientific community.

The Nobel committee is capable of carrying out the function of selection of leading scientists and provides the effective decisions of problems of the global threats protection.

It is a real and fast way of an exit from the global crises prevention deadlock in which the world community finds itself today because of its inability to find coordinated, scientifically-proved and non-political decisions.

The time limit on the decision of global threat problems after which will arise irreversible processes of global destruction, some kind of «point-of-no return» is equal to, according to experts, only one decade. Therefore it has no sense to follow an old way of numerous assemblies, multilateral commissions and other similar structures. These structures will only waste time and still existing possibilities of global crises prevention will be lost.

A compact, mobile structure, capable quickly to accept and pass all the necessary decisions is obligatory. The creation of Independent International Committee on Global Crises Prevention (IC GCP) solves this problem.

This committee must execute a number of principles of new strategic management of global processes. The major among them is mobility and speed, which is possible only by the restriction of the number of the members of IC GCP.

IC GCP must create the families of megaprojects, define their priorities, organize their start up, and provide their financing. That is why it is necessary to have experts in megaprojects management and the international finance in IC GCP.

World management experience in megaprojects shows, that groups numbering 8-12 persons are optimal for a management of the most complex projects. It is recommended on the basis of a choice of the Nobel committee to include in IC GCP 5 leading scientists specializing in the mainstreams of the global threats (Figure 1), 3 most successful heads of the international megaprojects and 3 most successful experts in the field of the international finance.

Mainstreams of megaprojects should correspond to the basic directions the global threats prevention:

• Global space and geophysical threats;
• Global Ecological and Biological threats;
• Global Financial, Economic and Social threats.

The mission of the IC GCP is not only working out of programs and projects of the global threats protection but also their management.

The whole system of strategic management of Global Crises Prevention should provide the following functions (Figure 5):

• Selection by the Nobel committee of a small group of leading scientists, heads of projects and international financiers who can organize the solving of complex scientific global protection problems.
• Formation of a network of global crisis prevention megaprojects and a choice of projects heads.
• The creation of the International bank on prevention the global threats prevention (International Global Crises Prevention Bank) at Independent committee.
• Strategic planning of families of megaprojects in the direction of the global threats.
• Formation and distribution of the international finance in the direction of of the global crises prevention.
• The control of megaprojects budgets and an estimation of results.
• Submitting reports before the world Internet community and the Nobel committee about expenditures and results.

Figure 5 Strategic Management of Global Crises Prevention

The problem of the finding the international financing sources for global threats prevention programs and megaprojects is a reason of many disputes and disagreements. Sources and the sizes of the international financing of global threats protection programs for a long time are the main stumbling-block. The solving of these problems is at a deadlock. At the same time expenses for megaprojects demand efforts of all the countries.

The analysis shows, that three basic sources of financing are possible:

• Deductions from the World GNP.
• Private and state donations.
• Penalties of corporations damaging environment.

Private and state donations are an insufficient and unreliable source of financing. Only when results appear they will start to play the bigger role as many of them, first of all, in research, contain potentially big profits.

Penalties of corporations for damaging environment today are transferred to the budgets of the states and the companies but further their traces are lost. As a rule, only insignificant part of these penalties comes back to the liquidation of the consequences of catastrophes. It is expedient to switch this financial flow to the IC GCP which will supply target compensations of the inflicted damages and it will also be used for working out preventive actions and environment protection technologies.

The main source of large-scale projects of global threats protection can be only the World GNP. It is quite logical that providing the survival of the world community must be financed by all the countries of the world without exception. But how to reach a consensus on financing mega projects of the governments and public organizations of all the countries? It is necessary to find an optimum providing a consensus. The principle of introduction of the same dynamic (changing in years) financial norm of deductions from the total national incomes for all the countries is the main way. This principle puts down all the countries of the world in equal conditions and it is impossible to recognize it unfair. Thus the countries with the big financial possibilities and the developed industry will bring in bigger contributions. Any other principle of financing will be a subject of eternal disputes and oppositions.

But what is to be done, if some countries refuse participation in the program of the international financing which often occurred during the last decades?

In this case, in connection with an absolute priority of a problem of the world community survival in relation to all the other problems and criticality of the time factor for its solving it is absolutely fair and logical to apply economic sanctions to the countries whose governments have refused participation in the international financing by way of: changes in conditions of the international credits and trading etc. It can be done by the international financial organizations (IMF, WTO) and the governments of the countries participating in megaprojects. It is worthwhile to establish these sanctions at such a level that financial losses of the countries refusing to participate in financing of the international projects will exceed 5-7 times their obligatory payments in IC GCP budget.

This system of new management of the global threats protection can be started very quickly. It is only necessary to accept these principles at meetings of the country leaders G7, then G20. also in IMF, and EU commission.

Public refusals of their acceptance are impossible. Because refusal of any government to finance independent researches, scientific and technical programs of global threats protection is equivalent to its public recognition of non-participation of the world community protection from catastrophes and crises with huge human victims and destruction of the world and national economies, including their own countries.

The next principle of formation of the international source for financing of megaprojects of protection from global crises is to be applied: an introduction of an ascending scale of deductions from the budget of each country under the uniform rate for all the countries with a step of increase in 0.5 % during the first 5 years under the following scheme:

Initial organizational phase – the 1st year is proposed to be 0.01 % of deductions from GNPs for the formation of IC GCP, creation of its infrastructure, working out of architecture of megaprojects of the global threats protection, change of priorities of the international financing of researches, definition of priorities, strategic planning of global crises prevention for 5 and 10 years, financing of scientific researches on new ways of the global threats counteraction, the systems analysis of the reached results and preparation of reports;

1st phase – the 2d year is proposed to be 0.5 % of deductions from GNPs for the financing of creation of the global threats monitoring systems, working out of the strategy of global threat protection, creation of the scientific and technical centers, deployment of the first line of protection against the most probable and dangerous threats, working out of actions on the lowering of the industrial load on the environment, financing researches of the new ways of the global threats counteraction, the systems analysis of the achieved results and submitting of reports to the Nobel committee and the world community;

2d phase - the 3rd year is intended to be 1 % of GNP for the formation of the global threats monitoring system and start up of the global control technologies, financing researches on the new ways to the global threats counteraction, the systems analysis of the results and the submitting of reports;

3d phase – the 4th year is proposed to be 1.5 % of GNP for the introduction of the global threats control technologies and start up of counteraction technologies to the most dangerous threats, continuous financing of researches on the new ways of the global threats counteraction, the systems analysis of the attained results and the submission of reports;

4th phase – the 5th year is proposed to be 2% of GNP for the full deployment of global threats counteraction megaprojects, continuous financing of researches on new ways on the global threats counteraction, the systems analysis of the results and the submission of reports.

Every year full audit of expenses, estimation of the results and evaluation of requirements for financial resources is to be conducted.

Deductions from the countries GNPs on global protection megaprojects in the 5th year will reach 2%. It means that the most part of world economic growth of this year will be directed on the global crises prevention.

But these large expenses are absolutely necessary and they are temporary for the global threats protection. Further expenses will decrease and will be mainly intended for the modernization. For all the countries and the world economy it is much better to develop several years with noncritical restrictions, providing survival and reliable protection of the world community from the global threats, raising the viability of the countries and the world community as a whole, then suddenly and completely end up their existence as a result of any global catastrophe. Today the usual euphoria at the «high rates of world economic growth» is senseless. It is necessary to place priorities correctly.

In 21th century the survival becomes more important than economic and financial prosperity.

The earlier it will be realized by the heads of the governments, international organizations and social movements, the more chances shall we have for prevention of crises, catastrophes and survival.

In many countries the considerable part of deductions from GNP could be saved by switching megaprojects noncritical for the world community survival to global threats protection programs. For example, by the switching of financial flows from the space programs of the Mars and other planets "conquest to financing the protection of the Earth from asteroids and comets. As a result of the Mars space program there will be 4 astronauts who will need to be delivered resources every 2 years. It demands huge investments which would suffice for the decision of global threat protection against quite a number of the extremely dangerous and imminent space threats. As one can see, the financial resources for the solving of protection problems of the world community are in stock.

In the process of the realization of the new strategy many organizations of scientists and the technical personnel will be increased. Moreover, global threats protection megaprojects will create many new jobs all over the world. Deployment of megaprojects of new strategy will give a new powerful impulse to the world economy.

New strategy of a problem of protection from global crises essentially differs from the existing attempts. All the approaches applied till now have not produced and will not have results. The offered strategy is the uniquely realistic way to prevent inevitable global crises and catastrophes.

The basic problem consists in whether the world community, and, first of all, heads of the states and the international organizations can realize the scale of coming disasters and catastrophes and make decisive steps for their prevention.

The time limit for solving of the global threats problems is being rapidly reduced. The risks of all catastrophes are quickly increasing in the next decade. "The cylinder of the Multi-barreled roulettes» accelerates its rotation and "shots" (realization of threats) happen more and more often. In the the next decades some of the global threats will be inevitably realized in the form of powerful crises and catastrophes if the new strategy of the global threats prevention is not applied in time.

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