PROBLEMS OF THE GLOBAL CRISES PREVENTION: NEW STRATEGY AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCING

Автор(ы): Доктор экономических наук, профессор Санкт-Петербургского государственного университета Маленков Ю.А.

Опубликовано: Euro-Mediterranean economics and finance review. Special Issue for IFC 6. Vol. 6, N°1, 2011 (pp.47- 74)
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Global superthreats to the development of the world community

The global threats usually are remembered only after they are realized in the form of big crises or catastrophes. During the stable periods they are forgotten and put aside except for the small groups of experts. It seems that working out and introduction of global prevention programs protecting from the crises menacing to the existence of the world community should be prime action. But actually it does not occur.

Why are the global threats to the world community development grossly underestimated? It is connected with some objective reasons.

Because of some of the specific biological and social features of people.

One of the human's typical qualities which sharply increases risks of existence of the world community is the biologically inherent quality of getting accustomed to the constant dangers and the global threats, and reducing its threshold reactions. The feeling of danger becomes dull and people cease to react to it. Let us consider these qualities.

First of all, a human is not able to live for a long time in the conditions of high stress level created by danger. It corresponds to researches of Hans Selie who proved that stocks of adaptable possibilities of people to stresses are limited.

When nothing occurs for a long time, the person forgets about dangers and considers them as insignificant though actually all the time risks accumulate and grow. As a result each next catastrophe takes people unawares, being accompanied by the big victims and economic damages.

The huge, quickly increasing number of distracting factors acts on the person in the modern world and fill up his consciousness. The principle of a dominant discovered by the physiologist A. Ukhtomsky said that in the consciousness of the person there always operates only one dominant, which builds the integrated picture. It means that the person cannot live constantly reacting to many factors. Unlike modern computers a human brain and consciousness work as «in one-program mode» where the program role is carried out by a dominant. The person constantly compares himself to other people and unconsciously follows the behavior of others. Seeing that others do not react to the global threats the person ceases to think of them too.

The person understands also the limited possibilities of his influence on development of the world and more often goes on a way of shifting decisions of global problems on other people. Intuitively, overwhelming majority of people considers that if there is a serious problem, then there are always people who will take care of it. But this is not the point.

Most people understand a scale of huge financial expenses required for the prevention of the global threats and assume that only the governments can influence this process.

The unfavorable conclusion follows: the majority of people wrongly consider that global problems will be solved by themselves, global risks are insignificant, and catastrophes are improbable. While actually everything is on the contrary - every day scales of dangerous consequences of the global threats increase, the risks and probabilities of global crises and catastrophes accumulate coming nearer to critical threshold values.

It is surprising but today the problems of the global threats protection are not solved at all or are being solved in the wrong direction. There is a lack of finance, coordination of works, uniform strategy of the global threats protection and principles accepted by all countries.

Improving the situation is possible only on the basis of a new approach. As the global threats are interrelated and financial resources on counteraction should be distributed the system model of the global threats and new strategy are necessary.

The following System Model of the global threats to the world community is offered, which defines the strategic directions of global crises prevention and workings out of counteractive actions (Fig 1):

Systems analysis shows that all the global threats, despite their differences, have the following common denominators:

• Every one of the global threats can put an end to the human development and the world community.
• Every one of the global threats has a quality of cumulative risk effect (probability of it realization grows steadily and rapidly while the time runs).
• Every one of the global threats activates a chain of other the global threats.
• All the global threats have the powerful effects of negative synergy.
• Due to the scale of finance needed not a single one of the global threats could be prevented by any state separately. They all need internationally coordinated efforts and international financing.
• All international efforts to prevent the global threats are paralyzed by bureaucracy, typical official indifference, absence of the international body having the full power and the necessary finance.

Let's examine the main global threats and measures on their counteractions (Figure 1):

Figure 1 System Model of the Global Threats to the World Community

Global space threats

The potential danger and consequences of our planet meeting asteroids, comets and other space objects is high and cannot not be overestimated as specialists confirm. But strange as it is they are almost neglected in all current "national strategies" around the world. Billions of dollars are planned for a multitude of dubious space programs having nothing to do with this critical danger.

At the same time the science proves that asteroid even 1.2 km in width is deadly to the whole civilization. Space threats specialists say about one of the latest: «If it does strike Earth, the impact could have the effect of over 20 million Hiroshima style atomic bombs... It's what we call a Global Killer... the end of mankind. Half the world will be incinerated by the heat blast...the rest will freeze to death in a nuclear winter».

The whole system of modern space monitoring is too far from being satisfactory. Due to the imperfections of it there are quite a number of asteroids detected only after they missed our planet. And the reserve of time given for the necessary actions by the existing system is almost nil: «For "new" asteroids (those on their first apparition), astronomers cannot determine the specific impact point until a few weeks prior to impact, or perhaps until they come within radar range, 3-6 days from Earth. Although we can issue a general alert for the target region (perhaps 1,000 km across), we may not be able to give the precise impact point until a few days prior to the collision».

The hazards of colliding pose a real threat of global catastrophes not for the future generations only, but for the existing one. It is confirmed by "A report on the need to develop an international decision-making program for global response to Near Earth Object threats" (2008): "Advances in observing technology will lead to the detection of over 500.000 NEOs over the next 15 years. Of those several dozen will pose an uncomfortably high risk of striking Earth and inflicting local or regional devastation.

The current national and international financing are totally inadequate to the scale and degree of high risk of the global space threats. "The 134-page report, released Friday by the National Academy of Sciences", states that the $4 million spent by the United States to identify all potentially dangerous asteroids near Earth is not enough to do the job mandated by Congress in 2005. NASA is in dire need of more funding to meet the challenge, and less than $1 million is currently set aside to research ways to counter space rocks that do endanger the Earth — measures like developing the spacecraft and technology to deflect incoming asteroids".

What is needed urgently? First of all, the powerful system of early long range detection, safe systems and technologies of space objects deflection. It is possible and can be done quickly. The only problem is finance. It seems that already yesterday the world community must have focused its efforts and international finance on resolving these urgent tasks. But now is the year of 2011, and as one can see nothing has been done. Developed countries waste huge finance on theirs own space programs which has nothing to do with the most serious global crises prevention. "Venus" and "Mars" space programs, space tourism and others are under way and have full support of governments. As to the real imminent space dangers, confirmed and proved by the famous scientists, specialists and UNO, they are not institutionalized in the states and international programs, not financed and not planned. While, on the contrary, they should be the most important megaprojects of the international community.

Analyzing the system links (Figure 1) we can see that Global space threat influences all other threats without an exception, causing globally destructive effect on all aspects of the world community: destruction of economy, its financial system, infrastructure, social sphere, ecology. The strongest impact on this threat is rendered by another threat - Bureaucracy, national and individual egoism, corruption, disintegration of positive social values which interfere with its solving.

Is it reasonable? No, it is a sure and swift way to the global crash in the near future.

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