PROBLEMS OF THE GLOBAL CRISES PREVENTION: NEW STRATEGY AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCING

Автор(ы): Доктор экономических наук, профессор Санкт-Петербургского государственного университета Маленков Ю.А.

Опубликовано: Euro-Mediterranean economics and finance review. Special Issue for IFC 6. Vol. 6, N°1, 2011 (pp.47- 74)
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New strategy of global crises prevention and it's international financing

How to solve a problem of global threats protection? We will divide the general problem on subproblems and conduct their decomposition (Figure 3).

Criticality of a situation in the sphere of global threats and the end of the time limit are already realized by some heads of the countries. J. Leinen, the chairman of the European Parliament Committee on the Environment forewarns: "If you wait for another 10 years, it may be too late. This decade - 2010 to 2020 - is decisive as to whether we can save the Earth or we lose the Earth."

It is necessary that the understanding of criticality of a situation in the sphere of the global threats become general for all the countries. It is useless to expect that it will be reached by the old methods, time consuming conferences, meetings and negotiations. All the former attempts, as one can see, have appeared unsuccessful.

Figure 3 Decomposition of the problem of the global threats protection

The new way, which will provide for the decision of this problem, is necessary. Let us consider its main characteristics:

1. The absence of the general platform and a common position in the development of joint strategy. It is displayed most strikingly in the questions of the international financing of environment protection, preservation of bioresources, and the acceptance of the international laws.
2. Too many participants of the process of strategic decisions on protection from the global threats. It gives way to constant conflicts, redundancy of communications, social hindrances.
3. The absence of the uniform strategy of global crises prevention management, including international financing.

One of the main principles used today for international discussions of the global threats is the urge to involve as many participants as possible. But this principle makes impossible to work out and create effective actions and programs of the global threats protection. In the decision of scientific problems are involved politicians, public figures, social activists. But let us consider, for example, a bridge with a catastrophe threat between two countries. This catastrophe can be prevented if experts quickly work out and take necessary actions. But instead of it the authorities, the public, international organizations start to discuss it in the United Nations Organization, try to co-ordinate problems of its financing and cannot agree on it. Time goes away and while this threat will be discussed, the bridge will fall - a direct analogy with the global threats.

The management theory says, that superfluous communications by a principle «participate all» (communication models of the type "wheel" or «all channels») in the conditions of crisis run extremely inefficiently, slowing down all the processes and interfering with the acceptance of necessary decisions. There will always be participants who will consider that their interests are restrained. It constantly occurs during the decision of the international problems.

Therefore the new approach to the decision of a problem of global threats protection is necessary.

The essence of any effective strategy is that it must offer a way of the effective solution of a problem. Finding it is the only way of an exit from current deadlock.

The new strategy of global crises prevention should provide:

• Elimination of the main obstacles on a way of the global crises prevention, and the most important of them is the constant discord among the countries. It could be done by creation of objective and conclusive common platform for the global threats prevention.
• Full domination of the scientific approach over political approaches to strategic decisions in the sphere of the global threats prevention.
• Bureaucracy prevention and lowering down the number of participants of the global threats protection management.
• Creation of a mobile management system of global crises prevention.
• Maintenance of a fair and conclusive principle for all the countries of the international financing of programs and megaprojects of protection from the global threats.

Principles of the new strategy of Global Crises Prevention include (Figure 4):

• Achievement of consensus among all the countries under the new concept of protection from the global threats.
• Priority of the science, not politics, in the management of the global crises prevention.
• Mobility of the global crises prevention management.
• Reliability and sufficiency of the sources of financing.
• Full transparency, openness and debureaucratization of the global crises prevention management.

The new strategy is directed on the elimination of barriers on the way of the decision of problems of the world community global threats protection.

A problem of the global threats protection is oversystem problem. Constant disagreements of the countries on the problems of global threats protection will take place until new mechanisms will be created. A unique way to leave this deadlock and solve this problem is to use oversystem methods.

Figure 4 Principles of the New Strategy of Global Crises Prevention

The strategy of the global threats protection management should be developed and realized by the oversystem structure. An oversystem structure is a structure which is above all the existing control structures and stands apart from all the countries. Until recently there was a unique proposition in the world - creation of the World government. But if this structure in the modern conditions is absolutely impossible, what remains? Are we to hope for the arrival of some mythical "aliens" who «will rescue the Earth» carrying out the necessary strategic decisions for us? Of course not, it is necessary to find an exit from the deadlock for ourselves.

So it is high time to create an oversystem structure for the global crises prevention management which will be accepted by all the countries unconditionally and against which it is impossible to put forward rational objections.

A key problem (Figure 4) is how to achieve the consensus of the various countries on formation of a new management system.

It must not depend on political, social and financial influence of this or that country or alliances of the countries. Only its full independence can provide working out of objective and correct strategic decisions on the global threats prevention.

As a solution of this problem the creation of Independent International Committee on Global Crises Prevention (IC GCP) is offered.

What should it be based on?

The major feature of the global threats problems is its very high level of scientific complexity (Figure 1). But today the accent in discussion of the global threats problems is strongly displaced in the spheres of political and public discussions where it is impossible to solve them. The problems of global threats protection and survivals of humanity are exclusively scientific problems. Only scientists are able to offer correct decisions. Hence, scientists should form a basis of the oversystem management structure.

But how members of this committee are to be selected?

It is a very complex problem. There are a lot of scientists in the world, and again there is a "trap" of superfluous communications and communication hindrances, and divergences in their opinions. That is why it is impossible to involve all the scientists in the process of global management.

However this insuperable problem can be solved. It is necessary to find only an oversystem structure in the world which is capable to select members of the IC GCP. And such a structure does exist. There is no need to create it.

In the modern extremely contradictory world, which is torn apart by conflicts and the struggle for leadership, divided into the poor and rich countries and is split by the rigid opposition of different ideologies and religions the unique way which includes such a structure possessing over national properties is the Nobel committee.

Today the Nobel committee carries out functions of Candidate Selection for Nobel awards, but actually its functions and possibilities are much wider. It possesses the unique qualities. It ties together the world of scientific community, has detailed ratings of scientists, possesses the most powerful in the world network of professional advisers and has technologies of the selection of the most important scientific researches among thousand of scientists, and the greatest international authority.

The Nobel committee can objectively and quickly choose who and why should enter IC GCP. Any other organization in the world is incapable of it. Unlike decisions of politicians decisions of the Nobel committee possess conclusive objectivity, world recognition and huge scientific potential. Its independence and the established relations through thousand experts with the world scientific community can be a fundamental basis for the selection of members of the IC GCP.

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